Saturday, January 23, 2010

Stock Market Review and Outlook Next week

It was turbulence on the DALAL STREET last week. NIFTY and SENSEX lost around 4.1 % and 4% respectively.

People were talking about correction which was pending for last few weeks, finally came with Bang. For last couple of weeks markets were bit confuse about decisive directional move. Finally it got bunch of bad news which gave direction to the market.

Reasons:
- It was disappointing set of earning numbers from Major player like L&T.
- Monetary tightening concerns in China after posting excellent Q4 GDP.
- Obama new proposal to put strict restriction on the big banks and new firms on WALL STREET.
- Commodity related stocks fell due to concerns about overheating in China.
- Realty stocks got hit as investors are bit skeptical before RBI policy meet next week.

Now what's next?

Positive Factors:
- Nifty managed to close above 5000 levels which is showing some strength and will recover if there's support from global markets.
- Most of the RBI actions have been priced-in, so market will avoid any out come from RBI policy meet if there s no major Negative surprise.
- There was some buying interest from Domestic Insurance Players on Friday which gave some strength to market.

Negative Factors:
- Markets were down with enormous volume. I look for this factor for directional move and picture doesn't seem to be good.
- FII's were net seller last couple of weeks and now DII's joined them as well.
- U.S. Markets got hit badly on Friday which may get reflected on Monday.
- If nifty breaches 5000 on closing basis then we may see levels of 4914 - 4860.

Advice to Investors:
- Get ready with money to invest in the market. If you get fall in the market next week invest partial money around levels of 4860-4900.
- For trading purpose pick up some of the High Beta counters like HDIL, Sesa Goa. You'll get quick returns in these stocks. It's high risk strategy.
- Look for PSU stocks which were tumbled last week and enter at 30-30% discounted price. I believe it's the best place to be invested.

I'll come up with investment idea for different stocks when market comes to suggested levels.

Happy Investing!!

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